How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Novorizontino or Draw 82%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Novorizontino host São Bernardo in a Brazil Série B clash on 25 September 2026. Novorizontino sit third in the twenty-team table with fifty points from twenty-nine games and a plus-22 goal difference. They sit just one point behind Fortaleza in the promotion places and level on points with Juventude below them. São Bernardo are mid-table in twelfth place, holding forty-one points from the same number of matches and carrying a plus-nine goal difference. They sit one point behind Goiás and are level with Athletic Club MG below. Both clubs will be looking to improve their positions, but the stakes are higher for Novorizontino as they chase the top three.
Novorizontino have been inconsistent in their last three outings. Their most recent game was a 2-1 loss away to Ceará. Before that they drew 1-1 with Cuiabá at home and, earlier, they beat Botafogo SP 3-1 away. In those three matches they have scored five goals and let in four. Two of the games featured three or more goals and both sides found the net in each of those high-scoring encounters. The side played their last match seven days ago.
São Bernardo arrive on the back of two straight victories. They opened the run with a 1-0 win at home over Atlético-GO, then travelled to beat América-MG 2-0. Their most recent game was a 2-1 defeat at home to Londrina, which broke a run of clean sheets. Across the three games São Bernardo have scored four goals and conceded two, keeping the opposition scoreless in two matches. Only one of those games produced three or more goals, and both teams scored in that match. Their last appearance was six days ago.
When the two teams meet, Novorizontino have the edge in the numbers. They are expected to score at least once 81 % of the time and to find the net twice or more in 46 % of matches. São Bernardo’s chances of scoring are lower at 57 % and only 20 % for a double. The expected total goals for the game is about two and a half, with Novorizontino projected to contribute 1.5 and São Bernardo 0.9. The pattern of recent games suggests a modestly open contest, but Novorizontino’s stronger attack should give them the advantage.
Our pick is Novorizontino or a draw. The price of 1.15 is shorter than what we see in the match, giving us a good safety net. We think Novorizontino’s home position, better league standing and higher scoring probability make them the likely side to avoid defeat. The price looks attractive for a result that does not require a win. It would go wrong only if São Bernardo manage to keep a clean sheet again and snatch a win, or if Novorizontino fail to score at all. In those cases the pick would not succeed.
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