Sport Recife v Juventude prediction

What to expect

We expect about 1.0 goals from Sport Recife and 0.8 from Juventude, so Sport Recife come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 1.9 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.

Our pick: Sport Recife to win. Sport Recife are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.0-0.8), and we make them about 42% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.

We put the chance of that landing at about 41 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.25, which works out at about 44 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.

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