What to expect
We expect about 1.6 goals from Atletico-MG and 1.0 from Santos, so Atletico-MG come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Santos come into this on five straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Santos to score 1 or fewer. This is about Santos's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.0 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 77%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 77 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.33, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
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