Flamengo RJ are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.6-0.6), and we make them about 80% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
This is about Botafogo RJ's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.0 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 75%.