What to expect
We expect about 1.6 goals from Cruzeiro and 0.9 from Bahia, so Cruzeiro come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Cruzeiro come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Bahia to score 1 or fewer. This is about Bahia's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.0 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 79%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 79 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.40, which works out at about 71 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
Cruzeiro have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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