What to expect
We expect about 2.2 goals from Flamengo RJ and 0.8 from Gremio, so Flamengo RJ come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Flamengo RJ come into this on three straight wins. Gremio come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Flamengo RJ to win. Flamengo RJ are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.2-0.8), and we make them about 74% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 73 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.17, which works out at about 85 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Flamengo RJ have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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