What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from Sao Paulo and 1.0 from Fluminense, so Sao Paulo come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Sao Paulo or Draw. This covers Sao Paulo or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 71 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.30, which works out at about 77 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Fluminense have won three of the last five meetings.
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