What to expect
We expect about 1.1 goals from Vitoria and 1.1 from Bahia, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Vitoria come into this on two straight defeats. Bahia come into this on five straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.3 goals in total (xG 1.1-1.1), keeping it under more often than not (about 62%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 62 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.76, which works out at about 57 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
One end-to-end spell, or a defensive mistake, and the goals can pile up before either side settles. We make it about 62%: a lean, not a lock.
