How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Werder Bremen to score 2 or fewer 78%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from Werder Bremen and 1.4 from Augsburg, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Werder Bremen to score 2 or fewer. This is about Werder Bremen's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.4 on the day, and the bet wants them to 2 or fewer, which we make about 78%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 78 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.33, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Augsburg have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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