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★★★★★This is about Werder Bremen's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 0.8 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 79%.
Bundesliga
FootballThe fixtures we cover this week with what we expect from each game, and the table as it stands.
18Matches
3Top picks
First kickoff
This week
Friday 9 October
v★★★★★Saturday 10 October
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★★★★★This should be an open game: we make it around 4.2 goals between the two (xG 1.2-3.0), landing about 80% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
v
★★★★★This should be an open game: we make it around 3.5 goals between the two (xG 2.3-1.2), landing about 66% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
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★★★★★Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.5-1.7), and we make both teams to score about 66%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
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★★★★★Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.2-1.5), and we make both teams to score about 66%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
v
★★★★★Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.4-2.1), and we make both teams to score about 62%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
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★★★★★This should be an open game: we make it around 3.8 goals between the two (xG 2.4-1.4), landing about 72% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
Sunday 11 October
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★★★★★Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.8-1.5), and we make both teams to score about 65%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
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★★★★★Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.4-1.0), and we make both teams to score about 58%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
Friday 16 October
Saturday 17 October
v★★★★★This should be an open game: we make it around 3.5 goals between the two (xG 2.2-1.3), landing about 65% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
v★★★★★This should be an open game: we make it around 3.3 goals between the two (xG 1.2-2.1), landing about 67% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
v★★★★★Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.2-1.0), and we make both teams to score about 63%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
v★★★★★Dortmund shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.0-2.2), and we make them about 69% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
v★★★★★Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.2-1.1), and we make both teams to score about 62%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
v★★★★★Bayern Munich are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 3.2-1.2), and we make them about 81% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
Sunday 18 October
v★★★★★This should be an open game: we make it around 3.4 goals between the two (xG 2.1-1.3), landing about 65% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
v★★★★★Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.8-1.9), and we make both teams to score about 69%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
