How it turned out
We projected about 3.3 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Atlético Ottawa (Draw No Bet) 69%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.1 goals from Atlético Ottawa and 1.2 from Inter Toronto FC, so Atlético Ottawa come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Atlético Ottawa (Draw No Bet). Atlético Ottawa are favoured here (xG 2.1-1.2), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Atlético Ottawa defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 69 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.35, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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