How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Forge FC to win 64%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.9 goals from Forge FC and 0.8 from Inter Toronto FC, so Forge FC come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Forge FC to win. Forge FC are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.9-0.8), and we make them about 65% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 64 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.23, which works out at about 81 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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