What to expect
We expect about 1.6 goals from Vancouver FC and 1.4 from Supra du Québec, so Vancouver FC come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Vancouver FC to win. Vancouver FC are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.6-1.4), and we make them about 42% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 42 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.97, which works out at about 51 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
Supra du Québec only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. The price is shorter than our own read of about 42%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
