How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Vancouver FC to win 40%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.6 goals from Vancouver FC and 1.4 from Supra du Québec, so Vancouver FC come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Vancouver FC to win. Vancouver FC are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.6-1.4), and we make them about 42% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 40 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.10, which works out at about 48 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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