How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Inter Toronto FC to win 45%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.7 goals from Inter Toronto FC and 1.4 from Vancouver FC, so Inter Toronto FC come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Inter Toronto FC to win. Inter Toronto FC are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.7-1.3), and we make them about 47% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 45 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.25, which works out at about 44 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
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