How it turned out
We projected about 3.4 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Lyon (Draw No Bet) 73%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Lyon look the stronger side on paper. Our goal expectations are 2.1 for Lyon and 1.2 for Fenerbahçe, so we expect an open game with chances at both ends. Lyon will be at home and should have the edge, but both teams will be looking to create opportunities.
Recent results are mixed. In their last five league games Lyon have won two, drawn one and lost two, while Fenerbahçe have only one win, two draws and two defeats. The two previous meetings between the clubs have produced no winners – both ended in draws – and they averaged just one goal each. The most recent encounter was a 1-1 draw on 18 August.
We back Lyon on a draw-no-bet. The price of 1.43 is longer than what we think the game is worth, which makes the pick attractive. If Lyon win, the bet pays, and if the match finishes level we get our stake back, so only a loss for Lyon would hurt us. We feel confident, with a 78 % chance of success.
The pick would go wrong if the game turns very tight and ends level, or if Fenerbahçe manage to score early and hold on. A defensive, low-scoring affair would also hurt our view. Still, we hold the opinion strongly and think the price makes the risk worth taking.
Recent meetings
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