What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from Burnley and 1.1 from Blackburn, so Burnley come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Blackburn Under 1.5. This is about Blackburn's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.0 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 76%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 76 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.43, which works out at about 70 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
Burnley have won three of the last four meetings, with one drawn.
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