How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Under 3.5 goals 72%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.6 goals from Derby and 1.0 from Cardiff, so Derby come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Derby come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.6 goals in total (xG 1.6-1.0), keeping it under more often than not (about 74%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.36, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Cardiff have won three of the last four meetings.
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