How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Southampton (Draw No Bet) 76%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.0 goals from Southampton and 0.9 from Stoke, so Southampton come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Stoke come into this on five straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Southampton (Draw No Bet). Southampton are favoured here (xG 2.1-0.9), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Southampton defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 76 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.24, which works out at about 81 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
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