What to expect
We expect about 1.2 goals from Stoke and 1.2 from Birmingham, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Stoke come into this on three straight wins. Birmingham come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This does not need a goal rush: we make it around 2.4 goals (xG 1.2-1.2), and two is enough to land it, landing about 72% of the time on these numbers.
We put the chance of that landing at about 70 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.32, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Stoke have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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