How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Coquimbo Unido or Draw 81%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.7 goals from Coquimbo Unido and 0.8 from Unión La Calera, so Coquimbo Unido come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Coquimbo Unido or Draw. This covers Coquimbo Unido or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 81 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.16, which works out at about 86 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Coquimbo Unido have won four of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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