How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Universidad de Chile to win 47%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.2 goals from La Serena and 1.6 from Universidad de Chile, so Universidad de Chile come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Universidad de Chile to win. Universidad de Chile shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.2-1.6), and we make them about 48% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 47 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.86, which works out at about 54 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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