How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Deportes Limache to win 42%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from Unión La Calera and 1.5 from Deportes Limache, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Unión La Calera come into this on two straight defeats. Deportes Limache come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Deportes Limache to win. Deportes Limache shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.3-1.5), and we make them about 43% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 42 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.80, which works out at about 36 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
Deportes Limache have won two of the last three meetings.
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