How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Unión La Calera to win 41%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.5 goals from Unión La Calera and 1.2 from La Serena, so Unión La Calera come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Unión La Calera to win. Unión La Calera are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.5-1.2), and we make them about 42% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 41 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.20, which works out at about 45 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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