How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Universidad de Chile (Draw No Bet) 73%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.8 goals from Universidad de Concepción and 1.6 from Universidad de Chile, so Universidad de Chile come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Universidad de Chile (Draw No Bet). Universidad de Chile are favoured here (xG 0.7-1.7), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Universidad de Chile defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 73 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.26, which works out at about 79 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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