What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from Universidad de Chile and 0.9 from Coquimbo Unido, so Universidad de Chile come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Universidad de Chile to win. Universidad de Chile are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.4-0.9), and we make them about 47% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 47 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.00, which works out at about 50 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Coquimbo Unido to spoil this. We make it about 47% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
