What to expect
We like this pick because the price looks good. We think there will be fewer than 3.5 goals in this match. The odds of 1.81 seem fair to us for this outcome.
What the numbers say
✓Beijing Guoan are unbeaten in their last five — three wins and two draws.
✓Shenzhen have not won any of their last five.
✓Four of the last five meetings had three goals or more.
✓Both teams scored in two of the last five meetings.
Recent meetings
4 Nov 2023Shenzhen 0 - 3 Beijing Guoan
8 Jul 2023Beijing Guoan 5 - 0 Shenzhen
11 Jul 2022Shenzhen 2 - 1 Beijing Guoan
21 Jun 2022Beijing Guoan 4 - 1 Shenzhen
4 Jan 2022Shenzhen 0 - 1 Beijing Guoan
One thing to watch
It only takes one early goal to change how both sides play, and a low total can unravel in a single quick spell. We make it about 68%: a lean, not a lock.
