How it turned out
The game finished with 4 goals. We made Under 3.5 goals 60%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
I like this pick because the price looks good. We think this game will be tight and low scoring, with not many clear chances for either team. This makes under 3.5 goals a decent choice.
What the numbers say
✓Beijing Guoan are unbeaten in their last five — three wins and two draws.
✓Shenzhen Xinpengcheng have won two of their last five.
✓Three of the last five meetings had three goals or more.
✓Both teams scored in three of the last five meetings.
Recent meetings
21 Apr 2026Shenzhen Xinpengcheng 0 - 1 Beijing Guoan
18 Oct 2025Shenzhen Xinpengcheng 2 - 1 Beijing Guoan
10 May 2025Beijing Guoan 3 - 1 Shenzhen Xinpengcheng
26 Jul 2024Shenzhen Xinpengcheng 1 - 0 Beijing Guoan
9 Apr 2024Beijing Guoan 1 - 2 Shenzhen Xinpengcheng
One thing to watch
It only takes one early goal to change how both sides play, and a low total can unravel in a single quick spell. Even on our own read it's closer to a coin-flip than a sure thing — about 60%.
