How it turned out
We projected about 3.4 goals; the game finished with 0.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.9 goals from Shanghai Port and 1.5 from Beijing Guoan, so Shanghai Port come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.4 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Shanghai Port come into this on two straight wins. Beijing Guoan come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 4.5 goals. This one is tight against the line: we make it around 3.5 goals (xG 1.9-1.6) and it takes five to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 76%). A close call rather than a comfortable one.
We put the chance of that landing at about 73 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.30, which works out at about 77 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Shanghai Port have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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