How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Liaoning Tieren to score 1 or fewer 77%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger host Liaoning Tieren at home in the Chinese Super League on 12 September 2026. Tianjin sit 14th out of 16 with 22 points and a +3 goal difference. Liaoning are just above them in 13th place with 25 points but a –12 goal difference. A win for Tianjin would pull them clear of the relegation-watch zone and give them a small gap over Wuhan Three Towns, who sit one spot below. For Liaoning a point would keep them three points ahead of Tianjin and maintain a one-point cushion over Henan FC, who sit just above them. The table shows the two clubs are almost neck-and-neck, with Tianjin needing a result to avoid slipping further.
Tianjin’s recent form has been mixed but shows a turn for the better. In their last eight matches they have won four, drawn two and lost two. The most recent games were a 2-1 win over Zhejiang Professional at home, a 1-1 draw with Qingdao West Coast at home, a 0-0 draw away to Wuhan Three Towns, a 4-2 loss to Beijing Guoan at home, a 2-1 loss away to Shandong Taishan and a 3-2 win over Yunnan Yukun at home. In that run they have scored 13 goals and let in 10. They kept three clean sheets and were shut out once. Four of the eight games featured three or more goals and both sides scored in five of them. The team are unbeaten in their last three matches and have earned two wins, one draw and one loss in their last four home games.
Liaoning have struggled more sharply. In their last eight fixtures they have managed only one win, two draws and five defeats. Their recent results include a 5-0 loss away to Yunnan Yukun, a 2-1 loss away to Chengdu Rongcheng, a 4-4 draw at home with Henan Songshan Longmen, a 2-1 home loss to Shenzhen Xinpengcheng, a 1-0 away defeat to Dalian Yingbo and a 3-1 home victory over Shanghai Shenhua. The side have scored ten goals while conceding 17 in those eight games. They have failed to find the net in three matches. Five of the eight games produced three or more goals and both teams scored in five of them. Their last four road outings have yielded no wins, one draw and three losses. Liaoning’s most recent game was the heavy 5-0 defeat to Yunnan Yukun, a result that underlines their defensive frailties.
When the two clubs have met before, the games have usually been open affairs with goals on both sides. The pattern in the recent runs suggests a similar story could unfold – Tianjin are likely to find the net, while Liaoning have been unable to score consistently and have let in many goals. The statistics point to a match where Tianjin may dominate possession and create chances, and Liaoning could struggle to keep a clean sheet. Expect both teams to be involved in scoring, but Liaoning’s record hints they may not add many goals themselves.
Our pick is that Liaoning Tieren will score one goal or fewer. The chance of this happening sits at 77 percent in our view. The price of 1.38 is longer than we think the game deserves, making it an attractive offer. For the pick to fail, Liaoning would need to find the net twice, which has only happened in about a quarter of their recent games. If they manage to break through more than once, the bet would lose, but the odds and the way Liaoning have performed suggest the safer outcome is they stay at zero or one goal.
Recent results
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