What to expect
We expect about 2.0 goals from FC Lugano and 1.6 from FK Crvena Zvezda, so FC Lugano come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.5 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: FC Lugano to win. FC Lugano are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.0-1.6), and we make them about 47% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 45 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.53, which works out at about 40 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
FK Crvena Zvezda only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. We only make this about 47%, so it's far from a lock.
