What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from HNK Hajduk Split and 1.1 from Ajax, so HNK Hajduk Split come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: HNK Hajduk Split to win. HNK Hajduk Split are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.4-1.1), and we make them about 42% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 41 out of 100. The price on offer is 3.49, which works out at about 29 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Ajax to spoil this. We only make this about 42%, so it's far from a lock.
