What to expect
We expect about 1.9 goals from Sp Braga and 0.9 from Gent, so Sp Braga come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Sp Braga come into this on two straight defeats. Gent come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Sp Braga to win. Sp Braga are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.9-0.9), and we make them about 60% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 58 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.81, which works out at about 55 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
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