How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Hajduk Split or Draw 75%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
NK Istra 1961 host Hajduk Split at their home ground on 26 October 2026 in the Croatian HNL. Istra sit seventh out of ten with 12 points after ten games and a slim +1 goal difference. They are just one point ahead of Slaven and one point clear of Lokomotiva. Hajduk sit on top of the table with 22 points, a +10 goal difference and a place in the European spots. The leaders are three points clear of Dinamo Zagreb, who sit right behind them. Both teams are looking to improve their positions – Istra wants to climb into the top half while Hajduk aims to extend their lead at the summit.
Istra’s last four matches have been a mixed bag of two wins and two defeats. Their most recent game was a 2-0 loss away to Lokomotiva. Before that they travelled to Osijek and won 3-1. At home they fell 1-0 to Gorica and earlier in the run they beat Rudeš 3-2. In those four games Istra scored six goals and let in six. They failed to find the net in two of the matches and both of the games with three or more goals saw each side score.
Hajduk come into this fixture on a strong run of five wins in their last six outings, the only slip being a 3-0 defeat away to Rijeka. Their most recent win was a 1-0 away victory over Thun, followed by a 1-0 home win over Varaždin, a 2-1 home triumph over Ajax, another 2-1 win at home against Dinamo Zagreb, and a 1-0 home win over Slaven. Across those six games Hajduk have scored seven and conceded five. They kept three clean sheets and were held scoreless once. Three of the six matches produced three or more goals, and in two of those both sides found the net. They played just four days ago, so they will be on a short turnaround.
The two clubs have met before, but the exact history is not given, so we can only look at their current form. Istra’s games have been tight, with a goal difference of zero in the last four and a mix of scoring and being shut out. Hajduk’s recent matches show a pattern of low-scoring wins, often 1-0 or 2-1, and a single heavy loss. This suggests a game that could stay close, with both sides capable of scoring but Hajduk likely to keep a clean sheet or limit Istra to a single goal.
Our pick is Hajduk Split or a draw at odds of 1.22. The price is shorter than we feel the game deserves, giving us a safety net if the match ends level. We think Hajduk’s four-goal advantage in the table and their recent run of wins give them the edge, but Istra have shown they can score, especially at home. If Istra manage to score first and hold on, the draw part of the bet would save us. The pick should work about three-quarters of the time, and the price looks good for that chance.
Recent results
Hajduk Split have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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