How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Dinamo Zagreb to win 59%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Dinamo Zagreb host Rijeka at home in a Croatia HNL clash on 27 October 2026. Dinamo sit second in the ten-team table with 19 points from nine games and a +11 goal difference, just four points behind leaders Hajduk Split. Rijeka are fourth with 17 points and a +4 goal difference, one point behind NK Varaždin and level with Osijek. Both clubs are fighting for the European places, so a win will keep Dinamo in the chase and could lift Rijeka closer to the top four. The numbers show Dinamo as the stronger side, averaging about 1.9 goals per game to Rijeka’s 1.0.
Dinamo’s recent run in their last eight matches has been mixed. They lost 4-2 to NEC Nijmegen at home, then bounced back with a 5-1 away win over Slaven. A 1-0 home victory against Anderlecht followed, before a 2-1 away loss to Hajduk Split. They recovered with a 4-0 away win over Vukovar 91 and a 3-2 home win over NK Lokomotiva. In those eight games they have scored 18 and let in 13, kept three clean sheets and failed to find the net once. At home they have won two and lost one of their last three fixtures, showing they can be dangerous on their own ground.
Rijeka arrive on the back of two straight victories. Their most recent games include a 4-1 away win at Karlovac, a 2-1 away success over Rudeš, a 4-1 away loss to Slaven, a 1-0 home defeat by Union Berlin, a 3-0 home win over Hajduk Split and a 6-0 away thrashing of Vrbovec. In those seven matches they have scored 17 and conceded eight, kept two clean sheets and were held scoreless once. Their form on the road has been solid, with three wins, one draw and one loss in the last five away games. The most recent 4-1 victory at Karlovac shows they can score freely when they are on the front foot.
We pick Dinamo Zagreb to win. The price of 1.73 matches our own view of the game. Dinamo’s stronger numbers, the home advantage and their need to stay close to the leaders give them the edge. The price looks good for a side we think has about a 61 % chance of coming out on top. For the pick to go wrong, Rijeka would need to repeat the kind of dominant away display they showed at Karlovac, scoring early and keeping a clean sheet. If they manage to hold Dinamo at bay and find a goal, the result could be tighter than we expect. Otherwise, we expect Dinamo to edge it and collect three points.
Recent results
Dinamo Zagreb have won three of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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