How it turned out
We projected about 2.3 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Rijeka to win 53%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.5 goals from Rijeka and 0.8 from Osijek, so Rijeka come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Rijeka to win. Rijeka are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.5-0.8), and we make them about 54% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 53 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.82, which works out at about 55 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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