How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Slaven to win 36%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.5 goals from Slaven and 1.3 from NK Lokomotiva, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Slaven to win. Slaven are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.5-1.3), and we make them about 38% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 36 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.50, which works out at about 40 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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