What to expect
We expect about 1.1 goals from Ammanford and 1.6 from Cardiff Met FC, so Cardiff Met FC come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Cardiff Met FC to win. Cardiff Met FC shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.1-1.6), and we make them about 50% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 50 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.67, which works out at about 60 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Ammanford to spoil this. The price is shorter than our own read of about 50%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
