What to expect
We expect about 1.1 goals from Flint Town United and 2.2 from Connah's Quay Nomads, so Connah's Quay Nomads come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Flint Town United come into this on two straight defeats. Connah's Quay Nomads come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Connah's Quay Nomads to win. Connah's Quay Nomads shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.1-2.2), and we make them about 64% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 64 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.86, which works out at about 54 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Flint Town United to spoil this. At around 64% on our numbers, it's a solid lean rather than a certainty.
