Slavia Prague v Bohemians 1905: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.9 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Slavia Prague to win 82%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 2.3 goals from Slavia Prague and 0.6 from Bohemians 1905, so Slavia Prague come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Slavia Prague come into this on three straight defeats. Bohemians 1905 come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Slavia Prague to win. Slavia Prague are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.3-0.6), and we make them about 84% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.

We put the chance of that landing at about 82 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.24, which works out at about 81 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.