How it turned out
We projected about 3.4 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Sonderjyske to score 1 or fewer 76%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.1 goals from Aarhus and 1.2 from Sonderjyske, so Aarhus come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.4 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Sonderjyske to score 1 or fewer. This is about Sonderjyske's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.2 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 76%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 76 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.37, which works out at about 73 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Aarhus have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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