What to expect
We expect about 1.2 goals from Aucas and 1.6 from Independiente del Valle, so Independiente del Valle come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Independiente del Valle or Draw. This covers Independiente del Valle or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 75 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.30, which works out at about 77 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Independiente del Valle have won four of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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