What to expect
We expect about 1.2 goals from Barcelona SC and 1.3 from Independiente del Valle, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Independiente del Valle to win. Independiente del Valle shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.2-1.3), and we make them about 40% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 40 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.25, which works out at about 44 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Barcelona SC to spoil this. The price is shorter than our own read of about 40%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
