How it turned out
We projected about 2.2 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Barcelona SC (Draw No Bet) 69%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
The game looks to be a one-sided affair. Barcelona SC are clearly the stronger side on the numbers we have. We expect about 1.4 goals from them and less than one from Manta, so the match should have a few chances but not be a goal-fest. It will probably be tight in the early stages, but Barcelona should have the edge as the game goes on.
Both teams have shown what the numbers say they can do. Barcelona SC are expected to score more than Manta, and the recent goal expectations line up with that pattern. When the stronger side has a higher goal expectation, the result usually follows that trend, so we can expect Barcelona to be the better side again.
Our pick is Barcelona SC on a draw-no-bet. This means we only lose if Barcelona actually loses, and a draw gives us our stake back. The price of 1.38 matches our view of the game, so it looks good to us. We think there is a 74 % chance that Barcelona will avoid defeat.
For this pick to go wrong, Barcelona would have to lose outright. That would require a big surprise from Manta, something the numbers do not suggest. We are fairly confident in our view, but we know football can be unpredictable, so we keep the stake modest.
The odds and results data behind this preview cost money every day it runs. If it was worth reading, you can help keep it free. Support us →
