How it turned out
We projected about 1.9 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Emelec or Draw 74%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from Emelec and 0.9 from Leones del Norte, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 1.9 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Emelec or Draw. This covers Emelec or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 74 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.23, which works out at about 81 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Emelec have won two of the last three meetings.
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