What to expect
We expect about 1.7 goals from Independiente del Valle and 1.0 from LDU de Quito, so Independiente del Valle come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Independiente del Valle to win. Independiente del Valle are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.7-1.0), and we make them about 57% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 56 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.79, which works out at about 56 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
LDU de Quito have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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