What to expect
We expect about 1.2 goals from Guayaquil City and 0.9 from Emelec, so Guayaquil City come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Emelec come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Guayaquil City to win. Guayaquil City are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.2-0.9), and we make them about 44% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 42 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.65, which works out at about 38 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
The odds and results data behind this preview cost money every day it runs. If it was worth reading, you can help keep it free. Support us →
