Manta v Orense: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.3 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Orense to win 35%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

Manta host Orense at their home ground in the final round of the Ecuador Serie A. Manta sit at the bottom of the six-team table, sixth out of six with 21 points from 30 games and a goal difference of minus 25. They are deep in the relegation zone and need a win to have any chance of climbing out. Orense sit comfortably in third place with 33 points and a -11 goal difference. They are four points ahead of Deportivo Cuenca and only one point clear of Técnico Universitario below them. A win for Orense would push them closer to the top spots, while a loss would keep Manta’s survival hopes hanging by a thread.

We think Orense are the better side on the day. The numbers are very close – we expect about 1.1 goals for Manta and 1.2 for Orense, a total of roughly 2.3 goals. Both teams have a high chance of scoring at least once, around 71-73 per cent, and a similar chance of finding the net twice, about 34-36 per cent. Our pick is Orense to win, with a 35 per cent chance of that happening. The price of 2.70 matches our view of the game and looks attractive. For Orense to lose, they would need to drop points at home while Manta pull off a rare clean sheet and score twice, which seems unlikely given Manta’s poor form and goal record. If the match ends in a draw or a narrow Manta win, our pick would miss, but the odds make the risk worth taking.