What to expect
We expect about 1.2 goals from Leones del Norte and 0.8 from Emelec, so Leones del Norte come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 1.9 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Emelec come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Leones del Norte or Draw. This covers Leones del Norte or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 79 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.28, which works out at about 78 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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