How it turned out
We projected about 2.1 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made LDU de Quito to win 40%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.8 goals from Guayaquil City and 1.2 from LDU de Quito, so LDU de Quito come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: LDU de Quito to win. LDU de Quito shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.9-1.2), and we make them about 41% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 40 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.05, which works out at about 49 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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