What to expect
We expect about 1.2 goals from Mushuc Runa and 1.1 from Leones del Norte, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Mushuc Runa to win. Mushuc Runa are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.2-1.1), and we make them about 43% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 42 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.65, which works out at about 61 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
What the numbers say
✓Mushuc Runa are unbeaten in their last three — one win and two draws.
✓Leones del Norte have won one of their last three.
